As the pandemic continues we are all living and working in uncertainty. A new guide hopes to help our sector plan for the various scenarios that may present themselves in the next year and beyond.

The Monitor Institute by Deloitte, a social change consultancy has released An Event or an Era?: Resources for Social Sector Decision-Making in the Context of COVID-19, to provide information to help philanthropy and nonprofit leaders prepare for possible outcomes of the pandemic.

The guide outlines how the COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented, creating significant challenges for our communities, stating in part, “The COVID-19 crisis isn’t occurring in isolation. The activism for racial justice taking place across the nation is intersecting with the health and economic disparities laid bare by the virus. The COVID crisis will increasingly serve as a compounding backdrop for many other issues we face.”

In April and May Deloitte interviewed over 75 leaders in the social sector to gather their insights and explore potential scenarios that may play out over the next 12 to 18 months. The guide lifts up various potential scenarios centered on the COVID-19 crisis, applying a racial equity lens to help inform the sector’s scenario planning efforts and future thinking.

Highlights from the guide:

What We Know Now

• The crisis is widening gaps and exposing long-standing inequities and disparities that are embedded in our communities, particularly in health care and access and education. The guide states, “it is clear that the economic and health disparities in the impacts of the pandemic will be part of a larger conversation on racial inequity—while at the same time racial inequity becomes an inextricable part of the conversation about COVID-19.”

• The need for services and assistance is straining the capacity and resources of nonprofits.

• A significant number of nonprofits may be forced to consolidate or close their doors due to the significant financial impact of the crisis.

• The impact of the crisis will fall disproportionately on communities of color and other marginalized populations. The guide shares that a “Heightened risk of exposure of frontline workers, worse access to health care and disproportionate risk of job and business loss all hit marginalized groups harder” during this pandemic. “This has exacerbated already existing inequities. And community-based nonprofits led by people of color, which typically have less access to capital, will likely be at greater risk for insolvency."

• Differences in outbreak rates and reopening strategies will cause varying levels of crises and need across geographies and time

What is Still Uncertain

• The duration of the pandemic.

• The length and severity of the economic downturn.

• The government’s response and the strength of the public social safety net. The guide shares, “In many parts of the country, it remains unclear whether government safety net programs will be sufficient to keep individuals from falling through the cracks. And uneven access to stimulus funds will have enormous implications across communities.”

• The impact of technology on operating models. While schools and many workplaces shifted to virtual during this public health crisis it’s unclear how much will remain virtual in some form following the crisis.

• The level of social cooperation across communities. The guide shares how social cohesion and working together across lines of difference are critical in crises but it’s unclear at what level we may see that happen in our current polarized social climate.

Based on these discussion points the guide provides four possible scenarios ranging from a “return to normal” to “rising from the ashes” and everything in between.

Deloitte provides guidance for the social sector to prepare for all four possible scenarios, such as identifying underlying values and their roles and influence in their communities; creating a plan for quick adaptation as scenarios change; focusing on equity; and monitoring factors that may indicate one or more scenarios.

In each scenario, the guide also provides questions and thoughts for philanthropy and nonprofits to consider as well as providing a racial equity lens.

There are also key takeaways for the social sector to consider in their planning; outlined below are key issues that emerged during their interviews with sector leaders earlier this spring.

Key takeaways:

• We are dealing with multiple, compounding crises. One leader who was interviewed said, “We’re now dealing with three crises at the same time: a health crisis, an economic crisis, and a social justice crisis.” The guide states that COVID-19 is “not only a ‘lead story’ but also the background setting in which other crises are playing out.” 

• Nonprofits and funders will live in the same context but have different experiences. While funders and nonprofits are partnering and working together in new and different ways to ensure community needs are met, the pandemic is expected to have “far greater and more lasting financial and operational distress for nonprofits.”

• The role of the social sector will be significantly determined by how federal, state and local governments are able to respond to the crisis. Budgetary constraints may limit state and local governments to adequately fund critical social services and it's unclear what this means for the role of the social sector.

• How private funders respond to a potentially significant nonprofit contraction will matter. “If earned revenue, individual donations, and government contracts to nonprofits dry up, institutional funders will often be the last backstop for many nonprofits and infrastructure organizations,” the guide states while highlighting how the Ford Foundation and other funders are increasing spending to support nonprofits.

“The social sector has a real opportunity to meet the moment by stepping forward with bold action and leadership in a national time of crisis,” the guide shares. “Funders and nonprofits may not be able to control the future, but it’s critical that we all keep working to do what we can to influence its trajectory.”

Want more?

Read An Event or an Era?: Resources for Social Sector Decision-Making in the Context of COVID-19.

Learn more about The Monitor Institute by Deloitte.

Connect with CMF’s COVID-19 Resource Central.